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Prediction for CME (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-14T15:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33434/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2/C3 and not yet observed in STEREO A due to a data gap. Associated with a powerful X4.5-class solar flare from AR3825 (S18E55) and subsequent strong eruption, characterized by intense brightening in SDO 131 and fast ejecta seen best in GOES 284 as well as a large, fast EUV wave associated with the eruption traversing back towards the northwest seen best in SDO 171/193 that covers approximately half the solar disk. The arrival of this CME is characterized by a significant increase in B_total from ~9nT to ~15nT, eventually reaching 20 nT by 2024-09-17T01:35Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind temperature, density, and velocity, which reached a peak sustained velocity of 560 km/s. By 2024-09-17T01:39Z, the magnetic field components begin to stabilize with time with steady -Bx and -Bz components dominate the signature until 2024-09-17T12:00Z. There is evidence of a clear flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T22:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T03:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-09-14 17:06
 - Time at C2: 2024-09-14 15:36
 - Radial speed: 2202.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 50 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E51
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 1066.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-09-16 03:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 35.75 hours)
Lead Time: 50.82 hour(s)
Difference: 19.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-09-14T20:00Z
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